Razumevanje imigracije in integracije s pomočjo interdisciplinarnih modelov socialne dinamike

POVZETEK PROJEKTA

Imigracija sodi med najpomembnejša družbena in politična vprašanja našega časa. Bistveno je postalo ustrezno odzivanje na moralni imperativ sprejemanja imigrantov, njihovega pritoka v Slovenijo in v druge EU države. Vendar pa prišleki pogosto prinašajo s seboj kulturne predpostavke in prakse, ki se znatno razlikujejo od tradicionalnih norm družbe gostiteljice. Kako bodo imigranti zaznani, zavisi od več dejavnikov, med katerimi je kritično razmerje med pritokom migrantov in njihovo integracijo v družbo gostiteljico. Ko je pritok majhen, gostiteljska večina pozdravi prišleke, ki postanejo integralni del družbe gostiteljice in obogatijo njeno raznolikost. Ko pa stopnja pritoka nenadoma naraste brez ustreznega porasta stopnje integracije, lahko postane gostiteljska večina manj gostoljubna ali celo sovražna do novih imigrantov. To v več državah EU očitno kaže nedavna rekordna volilna podpora desničarskim populističnim strankam, ki so obljubile, da bodo meje povsem zaprle za imigracijo. Toda zgodovinska dejstva nas učijo, da lahko nekontrolirana rast skrajno desničarskega populizma vodi v hude posledice, med katerimi je zapiranje meja še najmanjša skrb. Kako se naj hkrati odzovemo na moralni in človeški imperativ sprejemanja in integriranja novih imigrantov, hkrati pa jamčimo za politično in družbeno stabilnost ter ohranitev demokracije v naši državi in v EU? Za odgovor na to vprašanje je potrebno boljše kvantitativno razumevanje zapletene medigre med procesi imigracije in integracije v evropskih družbah.

Cilj projekta je razviti inovativen in ter disciplinarni okvir za prediktivno modeliranje in analizo

kompleksnih družbenih pojavov, kot so procesi imigracije in integracij. Naš okvir bo zgrajen na

integraciji teoretskega znanja o imigracijah iz družboslovja ob zanašanju na močan aparat za

modeliranje iz statistične fizike in podatkovnih znanosti. Znanstveno predstavlja to izrazito

interdisciplinaren podvig, kjer igrajo svoje vloge družboslovne, naravoslovne in računalniške znanosti, podkrepljene z izjemno razpoložljivostjo podatkov o vedenjskih vzorcih in praksah ljudi.

Menimo, da je naš projekt zelo aktualen, saj obravnava pomembno vprašanje, katerega sistematična kvantitativna analiza bi bila vsekakor že potrebna. Sposobnost zanesljivega napovedov anja kumulativnih učinkov sedanjih in prihodnjih imigracijskih kriz je osrednjega pomena za akademsko skupnost in nosilce političnega odločanja. Rezultati projekta bodo bolje opremili zakonodajalce za sprejemanje zakonodajnih odločitev, ki bodo odpravljale nezaželene učinke imigracije, in za oblikovanje strategij za preprečevanje takih negativnih učinkov v prihodnje. Na povsem znanstveni ravni bo naše delo demonstriralo uporabnost in moč sinergije med različnimi znanostmi in kvantitativnim pristopom h kompleksnim družbenim pojavom.

PROJECT ABSTRACT

Immigration is among the foremost social and political issues of our time. Responding justly to the

moral imperative of accepting immigrants, their inflow into Slovenia and other EU countries has become ubiquitous. But newcomers often bring cultural assumptions and practices that differ sharply from the traditional norms of the host society. How will immigrants be perceived by the natives depends on a number of factors, the critical among them being the relationship between the rates of their inflow and their integration in the host society. When the inflow is low the host majority welcomes the newcomers as they become the integral part of the host society and enrich its diversity. But when the inflow rate suddenly increases without the corresponding increase of the integration rate, host majority can become less welcoming to the point of hostility towards new immigrants. This is clearly verified by recent record votes of rightwing populist parties in several EU countries that promised to close borders completely to immigration. However, historic record teaches us that growth of rightwing populism that is not kept in check can lead to dire consequences, when closed borders become the least of our worries. How to simultaneously respond to the moral and human imperative of accepting and integrating new

immigrants, while guaranteeing political and social stability and preservation of democracy in our

country and in EU? To answer this question we should gain a better quantitative understanding of the intricate interplay between the processes of immigration and integration in the European societies. The goal of this project is to develop a novel interdisciplinary framework for predictive modelling and analysis of complex social phenomena, such as the processes of immigration and integration. Our framework will be built by integrating the theoretical knowledge about immigration from social sciences while relying on the powerful modelling apparatus from statistical physics and data science. Scientifically this represents a highly interdisciplinary endeavour, where social, natural and computer sciences play their roles, enhanced by the unprecedented availability of data on people’s behavioural patterns and practices. We believe that our project is very timely as it raises an important issue whose systematic quantitative analysis is long overdue. Being able to reliably predict the cumulative effects of the current and future immigration crises is of paramount importance to academic community and policymakers alike. Results of this project will better equip the lawmakers for taking the legislative actions that will reverse any undesired consequences of immigration and design strategies for preventing them from happening in the future. On the purely scientific front, our work will demonstrate the usefulness and power of synergy between various sciences in quantitative approach to complex social phenomena.